Toward a New Russia-West Regional Order

Foreign policy experts on post-Soviet Europe and Eurasia propose a possible roadmap to stability for the region between Russia and the West

By Carnegie Corporation of New York April 8, 2022

Emerging Global Order

Ukrainian refugees arrive on a ferry at the border crossing, on March 7, 2022, in Isaccea, Romania. (Credit: Andreea Campeanu via Getty Images)

Russia’s unprovoked attack on Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, signals a historic breakdown of Euro-Atlantic security with global ramifications. It follows a broader deterioration of relations between Russia and the West in a contest for influence over the states physically located between them – Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan.

Since 2017, Carnegie Corporation of New York has been supporting a group of international experts, convened by the RAND Corporation and the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung’s Regional Office for Cooperation and Peace in Europe, to propose a revised regional order in post-Soviet Eurasia. The group of experts involve former policy practitioners from the United States, the European Union, Russia, and the in-between states.

Their comprehensive proposal, A Consensus Proposal for a Revised Regional Order in Post-Soviet Europe and Eurasia, published in late 2019, provides geopolitical context for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and proposes an alternative set of rules, norms, and institutions to stabilize the region. The Corporation continues to support the initiative with funding for research, workshops, and roundtables to explore specific drivers of instability and measures to address them, and the sharing of policy recommendations with key stakeholders.

“In post-Soviet Eurasia, there is a lot of geopolitical competition, but no agreed-upon institutions or rules to govern that competition,” wrote the report’s coauthor Samuel Charap, a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation, in Foreign Affairs in early February. “Until Russia, the United States, Europe, and the states stuck in between them reach a consensus on a revised regional order, post-Soviet Eurasia will remain a source of instability and conflict.”

In the introduction to the proposal, Charap describes the West and Russia as pursuing “mutually incompatible security and economic agendas that create binary choices for the states of the region.” The security architecture is defined by the rivalry between the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and its member states on the one hand and Russia on the other. The report groups the in-between states according to their differing security arrangements and ambitions: 1) nonaligned countries (Azerbaijan, Moldova) that want to maintain nonalignment with Russia and the West and pursue relations with both while pursuing their own security policy, 2) Russian-allied countries (Armenia, Belarus) that have a defense alliance with Russia but also stress their own sovereignty, and 3) Western-leaning countries (Ukraine, Georgia) that have aspirations for membership in NATO and Western security to preserve their independence and constructive relations with their neighbors, including Russia. Charap describes an economic order that is likewise marked by an incompatibility between the European Union (EU) and the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), with no regular dialogue between the respective commissions.

The report proposes a revision of the regional order that would provide another option for in-between states in which a nonaligned country could opt for a third-way status that would provide explicit acknowledgement of its nonalignment and recognition of that status by the major powers. A new consultative body for major-power engagement would govern the regional security architecture; tailored solutions would facilitate multidirectional trade; regular dialogue would be established among the EU, the EAEU, and the in-between states; and new norms would govern the trade blocs’ behavior.

The report’s authors acknowledge that negotiating a revised regional order is highly unlikely in the short term. “While the proposal contained in this volume might not provide recommendations that are actionable in the current political environment,” writes Charap, “it does offer a blueprint for a revision of the regional order that could be implemented when there is a window of opportunity for change.”

The proposal presents a three-pronged approach, focused on security architecture, economic integration, and regional conflicts.

Security architecture would involve regional security consultations (RSC) that would be held to discuss the regional security architecture and address any disputes regarding it, as well as to provide mutual reassurance about intentions, maintain behavioral norms that limit participants in RSCs from seeking changes without consultations and attempts to find mutual consensus while giving due weight to regional stability and the security interests of all parties. It also allows a third-way status through which a state could have their nonalignment acknowledged by the major powers and reinforced by multilateral security guarantees (MSGs) and confidence and security-building measures (CSBMs).

Economic integration would entail a multidirectional trade framework through which parties would create functioning and mutually beneficial trading arrangements for in-between states with both the EU and the EAEU. These would involve harmonization of technical regulations and deconflicting transit issues; trilateral consultations through which parties commit to consultation mechanisms on issues related to the economic interests of all parties; and a shared agreement to follow behavioral norms.

Regional conflict measures would offer enhanced conflict management through which parties would adopt pain-reduction measures that reduce human suffering; CSBMs to reduce the risk of armed conflict and improve security on the ground; recommitment to conflict settlement; and the provision of incentives to engage conflict-affected states in the process, such as generous reconstruction packages.

To learn more, read the full proposal A Consensus Proposal for a Revised Regional Order in Post-Soviet Europe and Eurasia.