Report Presents 3 Alternate Future Scenarios for China: 'Fragmentation,' 'Strong State,' and 'Partial Democracy'

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China 2020 a report published by the New York University Center for Global Affairs through a grant from Carnegie Corporation of New York, presents three alternate future scenarios based on different trajectories China might follow out to 2020: “Fragmentation,”  the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) faces escalating demands from a range of actors who have slowly chipped away at its legitimacy and capacity, placing the very survival of the CCP in question; “Strong State,” having engaged its best and brightest to successfully address the many challenges faced by China, the CCP remains highly autocratic, making extensive use of technology to improve government performance and suppress dissent; and “Partial “Democracy,” the CCP is able to maintain a powerful position only by accommodating greater popular demand for openness and participation in shaping China’s political and economic agenda.

Read the press release and China 2020 report.