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Background

Carnegie Corporation of New York established the Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict in May 1994 to address the looming threats to world peace of intergroup violence and to advance new ideas for the prevention and resolution of deadly conflict. The Commission is examining the principal causes of deadly ethnic, nationalist, and religious conflicts within and between states and the circumstances that foster or deter their outbreak. Taking a long-term, worldwide view of violent conflicts that are likely to emerge, it is seeking to determine the functional requirements of an effective system for preventing mass violence and to identify the ways in which such a system could be implemented. The Commission is also looking at the strengths and weaknesses of various international entities in conflict prevention and considering ways in which international organizations might contribute toward developing an effective international system of nonviolent problem solving.

Additional copies of this report may be obtained free of charge from the Commission's headquarters:

Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict
2400 N Street, N.W.
Sixth Floor
Washington, D.C. 20037-1153
Tel.: (202) 429-7979 Fax: (202) 429-9291
E-mail: pdc%carnegie@mcimail.com

INTRODUCTION

The Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict was established by Carnegie Corporation of New York in 1994 with a three-year mandate to examine the causes of deadly conflict in the post--Cold War era and to offer judgments on how the international community might do better in preventing these conflicts. With its first year completed, this international commission has established an agenda that is at once deliberately visionary and strongly committed to finding practical ways to prevent incipient conflict from turning into mass violence.

This task is daunting. Successful prevention is hard to measure, yet most observers agree that preventing such disasters as those now plaguing the Balkans, parts of Africa, and the Caucasus is far superior than having to deal with their consequences. The question is: How?

To understand the task of prevention as fully as possible, the members of the Commission have undertaken an ambitious program of research and consultation covering a wide range of regions and actors on the international stage. To augment its own work, the Commission has identified skilled and experienced scholars and practitioners and has asked them to undertake studies of specific current conflicts and of efforts to resolve these conflicts; the results of these studies will be published by the Commission. The Commission has also identified several areas that have been underexplored thus far--such as improving policing practices to help maintain civil order--for detailed examination by experts.

This report appears in outline form to give the reader easier access to the ideas and programs being pursued by the Commission and by others on its behalf. Following an overview of the Commission's mandate, the report highlights the conceptual framework that structures the Commission's approach and outlines the work in progress by commissioners and outside experts to address the issues raised in each part of the conceptual framework; future projects are also described. Over the course of its life, the Commission will publish reports and disseminate policy recommendations resulting from the work it has generated; it expects to issue its final report in 1997.

THE COMMISSION'S MANDATE: AN OVERVIEW

The Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict began operation in May 1994. Established by Carnegie Corporation of New York, its mandate is to address the looming threats to world peace posed by intergroup violence and to advance ideas for the prevention and more rapid resolution of deadly conflict. The Commission is co-chaired by Carnegie Corporation president David A. Hamburg and Cyrus R. Vance, former U.S. secretary of state. The Commission, which meets quarterly, is composed of sixteen eminent international leaders and scholars who have long experience in conflict prevention and resolution. Members of the Commission and its Advisory Board are listed on pages 21-23.

For the Commission's main purposes, "deadly conflict" means "mass violence"--those situations where conflict and strife can lead, and have led, to outbreaks of violence, expulsion, and slaughter on a massive scale or targeted against specific populations. We have in mind a wide range of circumstances, including those where the hatreds and fears of groups are exploited in violent ways by political opportunists and those where the potential for uncontrolled possession of nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons menaces the lives of millions.

Preventing the world's deadly conflicts is a complex undertaking that requires a concerted effort by a wide range of actors. The Commission does not mean to promote preventive strategies as easy, reflexive, or cost-free palliatives to the global illness of violence. Effective prevention requires a long-term, structural approach with policies that promote democratization, economic reform, education, and cross-cultural communication. But it also, at times, demands immediate operational steps to build a firebreak against the outbreak and spread of mass violence. Either way, at root, prevention means action, and action entails costs, and costs demand tradeoffs. Thus, no effort to help avert mass violence is easy, cheap, or without controversy.

But when it comes to preventing mass violence, the record of conflict in the twentieth century--or even the post-Cold War period alone--is enough to convince us that we can surely do better.

THE CONCEPTUAL APPROACH

To offer some modest judgments on how we can do better, the Commission has adopted a three-part conceptual approach that serves both as a strategic framework for thinking about preventing mass violence and as an analytic structure to guide its substantive work. This conceptual approach may be summarized as follows:

I. What is the problem posed by "deadly conflict" within or between states? Why is outside help necessary to deal with this problem?

II. How should we structure that help? What political, economic, military, or social tools are at the disposal of the international community? What is the relationship between and among these tools--especially now, in the post-Cold War world? Can a more coherent approach or system for using these tools in a discriminating, selective way be devised as a more effective means of preventing mass violence?

III. Who should do the work? What should be the role of the international institutions and regional organizations? What prerogatives for action are individual states likely to retain? What responsibilities for preventing mass violence do these prerogatives suggest? How can the vast resources that exist in the private sector--for example, in nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), the media, religious groups, and the business community--be employed more effectively and coordinated with governmental responses?

THE WORK PLAN

The members of the Commission have already undertaken a good deal of work in an effort to offer some answers to the questions raised above. In addition, the Commission has asked for work by a substantial number of scholars and other experts to help inform its judgment on these issues. The Commission also sponsors conferences around the world, convenes seminars, and actively participates in the work of others that relates to its core agenda. Moreover, the Carnegie Corporation program for Preventing Deadly Conflict provides longer term research and project support for efforts that complement the agenda of the Commission. The following sections elaborate some of the key issues associated with each part of the conceptual framework and outline work in progress and in planning that relates to these issues.

I. The Problem And The Need For Outside Help

Objectives

• Construct a compelling argument for action to help avert this violence

Issues

• How do we predict reliably where mass violence will occur?

• How can priorities for preventive action be established?

• What are some guiding principles for taking preventive action in different types of situations? How do we reconcile imperatives for intervention with norms of state sovereignty?

• How does the international need for action intersect with the national interests of states?

Work In Progress

• A project to compile and compare various motivations for preventive action

• An examination of failed states and their process of decline and an analysis of opportunities to prevent the emergence of violence associated with decline

• Case studies of possible "missed opportunities" in the former Yugoslavia, Rwanda, Nagorno--Karabakh, Chechnya, and Somalia

• A commissioned piece on the imperative for political leadership to ensure effective prevention, including ways to respond that do not involve the use of brute force

• A high-level meeting to offer a policy prescription for preventing further violence in Rwanda and Burundi

Future Projects

Future work includes case studies on successful efforts in prevention and an examination of possible moral and ethical aspects of prevention efforts.

II. Tools For Prevention

Objectives

• To understand the relationships among these tools and to identify the actors who might put them to best use in order to determine whether a "system" or regime can be devised for more effective prevention

Issues

• Information and early warning. Information networks that would identify and monitor "hot spots" and provide early warning of intensifying danger, including such indicators as gross human rights abuses, massive population migrations, and the buildup of weapons--including reliable mechanisms for illuminating specific regional problems as well as global patterns.

  Forums for discussion, analysis, and advocacy. Visible, respected forums for discussion of disputed issues by all relevant parties, for drawing the world's attention to the basic facts of the dispute in a responsible way, and for engaging policymakers and publics as receptor sites for early warning, analysis, and potential response.

  Institutions/processes for indigenous nonviolent conflict resolution. Institutions for negotiation and adjudication where people air grievances, discuss conflicts, and engage in democratic ways of coping with disagreements. Processes for joint problem solving in which representatives of contending groups can explore how their interests, basic needs, and aspirations compete as well as intersect with such potentially shared goals as regional economic development and building democratic institutions.

  Incentives/sanctions to encourage nonviolent dispute resolution. An array of political, diplomatic, economic, cultural, technological, and psychological pressures and inducements that could be applied effectively to influence potential belligerents towards peaceful settlement of disputes before their actions escalate into mass violence.

  Rapidly deployable and fair mechanisms for conflict resolution. Mechanisms that can be brought to bear promptly, such as envoys and fact-finding missions, are recognized as legitimate, and are supported by the authority and policies of those states/institutions that deploy them.

  An adaptable, credible military force to help deter or limit mass violence. The ability to use or threaten more forceful measures, under certain circumstances, to strengthen preventive strategies.

• How effective are existing tools for preventing deadly conflict? What adaptations are necessary to develop effective strategies for long-term stability (structural prevention)? To improve the efficacy of immediate action (operational prevention)? Can they be applied affordably on a scale sufficient to be effective?

• How do we think more effectively about tools such as human rights, humanitarian aid, and economic assistance in the service of prevention?

• How can we broaden our understanding of how technological solutions might help alleviate circumstances that contribute to mass violence?

Work In Progress

• Case studies, leading to an edited volume, on the role of incentives in prevention

• A study on multilateral uses of force to prevent deadly conflict (in collaboration with the Atlantic Council)

• A conference and volume (in collaboration with the Department of Social Sciences at the U.S. Military Academy) on the role and use of force in preventing deadly conflict

• A study on the use of nonlethal technologies in preventing deadly conflict

• An examination of how science and technology might help alleviate circumstances that contribute to mass violence

• An examination of how policing practices and civil order techniques can be improved and employed to help prevent deadly conflict

• A study of comparative power-sharing arrangements and their suitability for use in badly divided societies for promoting political alternatives to violence

• A study of "peacebuilding" to develop a greater understanding of how to enhance indigenous capacity to avoid mass violence

• A reconsideration of the findings of the report of the 1983*R Commission on Economic and Social Development to determine how strategies of sustainable development contribute to conflict prevention

• An August 1995 conference in Cyprus on reconceiving security in the Middle East

• Case studies on preventing the reemergence of violence in Tajikistan, El Salvador, and Cambodia

• Case studies on the role of ad hoc coalitions or "friends" groups for dealing with incipient conflict

• A study of how groups in conflict within South Africa, Northern Ireland, and the Basque region of Spain learn from each other's experience in turning away from violence

• A study of Russia's role in its "near-abroad"

• A study of the unprecedented deployment of UN peacekeepers to Macedonia

• A project to examine the "early warning response" problem to develop ways both to ensure adequate warning of potential mass violence and to promote an early and effective international response to such warning

Future Projects

Future projects include a study of "lessons learned" for prevention from missed opportunities in Cyprus and Northern Ireland; a study of the circumstances that contribute to outbreaks of violence against minority groups and strategies for preventing such violence; a study of the environment-security nexus; an examination of ways to enhance the UN's capacity to deploy envoys or special representatives to conflict areas, and a study of the role of law in preventing deadly conflict.

III. Actors

Objectives

• To understand the issue of "political will"--including the role of leadership--in shaping preventive action

Issues

• How do rights, authorities, and legitimacy for action derive?

• What prerogatives for action are individual states likely to retain? What responsibilities for preventing mass violence do these prerogatives suggest?

• Who pays?

• How do the various actors in the private sector, e.g., NGOs, the media, religious groups, and the business community, currently address themselves to preventing deadly conflict?

• What roles can these actors play? For example, what interests does the business community have in stable international markets? What responsibilities for the maintenance of that stability do these interests suggest? How can these actors discharge their responsibilities in constructive ways?

Work In Progress

• A paper on the Norwegian model for governmental-NGO cooperation in conflict resolution and humanitarian relief

• A seminar and discussion in September 1995 at the 4th World Conference on Women in Beijing on the grassroots and transnational roles of women in preventing deadly conflict

• A meeting series (in collaboration with Business Executives for National Security) and study on the role of the business community in preventing deadly conflict

• A Task Force on UN-NGO coordination in humanitarian and peacekeeping efforts

• An examination of how the role of established democracies in preventing deadly conflict might be enhanced

• A study of the development of European regional institutions and their suitability for maintaining stability and preventing the emergence of mass violence (in collaboration with RAND)

• A study of the role of the media in deadly conflict and its potential preventive uses

• A feasibility study on UN regional centers for conflict prevention

Future Projects

Future projects include expanded work on the role of NGOs; case studies on the role of business; an examination of the role of education for the prevention of deadly conflict; a study on ways to strengthen international legal institutions; and detailed examinations of the developing role of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), the Organization for African Unity (OAU), and the Organization of American States (OAS) in conflict prevention.

PUBLICATIONS

The Commission expects to issue several dozen reports. To date, it has released one publication: a discussion paper, "Comprehensive Disclosure of Fissile Materials: A Suggested Initiative," was timed to coincide with the April-May 1995 Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference in New York. Several publications are in press:

• "Promoting Democracy in the 1990s: Actors and Instruments, Issues and Imperatives," a paper prepared for the Commission by Larry Diamond, a senior research fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and co-editor of the Journal of Democracy

• "Alternatives to a UN Standing Army," a paper by General Andrew J. Goodpaster, a member of the Comission's distinguished Advisory Board

Reports are available free of charge. To be added to our mailing list or to receive copies of specific publications, please fax or mail the form on page 25 to the Commission's offices.

APPENDIX
BIOGRAPHIES OF COMMISSIONERS

David A. Hamburg, co-chair of the Commission, has been president of Carnegie Corporation of New York since 1983. In addition to holding academic posts at Stanford and Harvard universities, he has been president of the Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences. He has also been president and chairman of the board of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. Dr. Hamburg has served on the Chief of Naval Operations Executive Panel and currently serves on the Defense Policy Board of the U.S. Department of Defense. He is also a member of the President's Committee of Advisors on Science and Technology. He has long been concerned with the problems of human aggression and violence, especially with violence prevention and conflict resolution, and he is the author or co-author of numerous publications on these subjects.

Cyrus R. Vance, co-chair of the Commission, is a partner in the New York law firm of Simpson Thacher & Bartlett. Mr. Vance was U.S. secretary of state from 1977 to 1980 during the Carter administration. He was secretary of the army from 1962 to 1964 and deputy secretary of defense from 1964 to 1967. From 1991 to 1993 Mr. Vance served as personal envoy of the secretary-general of the United Nations in the Yugoslavia crisis and as UN co-chairman of the International Conference on the Former Yugoslavia (Lord Owen was the European Community co-chairman of the conference). In 1992, Mr Vance was also a personal envoy of the secretary-general in Nagorno-Karabakh and in South Africa. He has served as special representative of the president in civil disturbances in Detroit (1967), in the Cyprus crisis (1967), and in Korea (1968), and he was one of two U.S. negotiators at the Paris Peace Conference on Vietnam (1968-1969).

Gro Harlem Brundtland, the first woman prime minister of Norway, has served in that position three times: from February to October 1981, from May 1986 to October 1989, and from November 1990 to the present. She has been a member of the Storting (parliament) since 1977 and was minister of the environment from 1974 to 1979. Mrs. Brundtland was leader of the Norwegian Labour Party from 1981 to 1992. She is first vice president of the Socialist International and was a member of the Independent Commission on Disarmament and Security Issues (the Palme Commission). From 1983 to 1987, she chaired the World Commission on Environment and Development, which produced the influential report Our Common Future.

Virendra Dayal is a member of the National Human Rights Commission of India. In 1965 Mr. Dayal joined the office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), where for the next fourteen years he was involved in the management of operations to protect and assist refugees in Africa, Asia, the Americas, and the Middle East. In 1979 he was appointed Director of the Office of Special Political Affairs in the offices of the Secretary-General, and in 1982 Secretary-General PÍrez de Cuellar asked him to serve as his Chef de Cabinet, with the rank of Under Secretary General. He continued to serve in this capacity with both PÍrez de Cuellar and Boutros-Ghali until March 1992, when he retired. After his retirement, he assisted Boutros-Ghali in writing An Agenda for Peace, and in September 1992 he visited South Africa as the Secretary-General's personal envoy. In October 1993, Mr. Dayal was appointed by the President of India to a five-year term on the National Human Rights Commission of India.

Gareth Evans has been foreign minister of Australia since 1988. First elected to Parliament in 1977, he has been reelected three times, most recently in 1993. A barrister who became Queen's Counsel in 1983, Senator Evans served in several ministerial positions before becoming foreign minister. In 1989 he chaired the inaugural ministerial meeting to establish APEC (Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation), and from 1989 to 1991 he played a leading role in developing the UN peace plan for Cambodia. He also led the Australian government's Chemical Weapons Convention initiatives. Among his publications is the 1993 book, Cooperating for Peace: The Global Agenda for the 1990s and Beyond.

Alexander L. George is Graham H. Stuart Professor Emeritus of International Relations at Stanford University. A leading academic specialist on nuclear deterrence, crisis prevention and management, and coercive diplomacy, Dr. George came to Stanford in 1968 after ten years at the Rand Corporation, where he had been head of the social science department. The most recent of his many scholarly publications are Forceful Persuasion: Coercive Diplomacy as an Alternative to War (1992) and Bridging the Gap: Theory and Practice of Foreign Policy (1993). Deterrence in American Foreign Policy, which he co-authored with Richard Smoke, won the Bancroft Prize in 1975. In 1983 he was the recipient of a MacArthur Foundation Five-Year Prize Award.

Flora MacDonald is the chairperson of the International Development Research Centre in Ottawa. Miss MacDonald, a native of Nova Scotia, served from 1972 to 1988 as member of parliament for Kingston and the Islands (Ontario), during which time she held three cabinet positions: secretary of state for external affairs, minister of employment and immigration, and minister of communications. In 1989 the secretary-general of the United Nations appointed her to the Eminent Persons' Group to study transnational corporations in South Africa. She became chairperson of the International Development Research Centre in 1992. In 1993 Miss MacDonald was named an Officer of the Order of Canada.

Donald F. McHenry is University Research Professor of Diplomacy and International Affairs at Georgetown University. As U.S. permanent representative to the United Nations from 1979 to 1981, Ambassador McHenry was a member of President Jimmy Carter's cabinet. He had served as U.S. deputy representative to the U.N. Security Council from 1977 to 1979. He has represented the United States in a number of other international forums and was the U.S. negotiator on the question of Namibia. After eight years at the Department of State, he joined the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in 1973 as a project director in Humanitarian Policy Studies. He has taught at Southern Illinois, Howard, American, and Georgetown universities.

Olara A. Otunnu is president of the International Peace Academy, an independent institution based in New York and devoted to promoting peacemaking and peacekeeping. Born in Mucwini, Uganda, Mr. Otunnu received his education at King's College, Budo; Makerere University; Oxford University, where he was an Overseas Scholar; and Harvard University, where he was a Fulbright Scholar. He practiced and taught law before serving successively as a member of the Uganda Consultative Council (interim parliament), Uganda's Permanent Representative to the United Nations, and Minister of Foreign Affairs. At the UN, Mr. Otunnu served as President of the Security Council, Chairman of the UN Commission on Human Rights, Chairman of the Contact Group on Global Negotiations, and Vice President of the General Assembly. Before assuming his present position, he returned to academia, doing research and teaching in Paris. Mr. Otunnu is a member of the Commission on Global Governance, the Club of Rome, and the Council of African Advisers to the World Bank, and he also serves on the boards of several organizations, including the Aspen Institute, the Carnegie Endowment for World Peace, and Aspen Italia.

David Owen is chairman of Humanitas, a charitable organization that builds on the work of the Independent Commission on International Humanitarian Issues, of which he was a member from 1983 to 1986. From August 1992 to June 1995, he was the European Union co-chairman of the International Conference on the Former Yugoslavia (Cyrus Vance was the UN co-chairman until 1993). Lord Owen, who was made a Life Baron in 1992, was a member of the House of Commons from 1966 to 1992. During that time, he played a leading role in British politics, serving as foreign minister in the Labour government of James Callahan and co-founding the Social Democratic Party, which he led from 1983 to 1987 and again from 1988 to 1992. Lord Owen was a member of the Palme Commission from 1980 to 1989.

Shridath Ramphal, a former foreign minister of Guyana who was secretary-general of the Commonwealth from 1975 to 1990, is co-chairman of the Commission on Global Governance, whose report, The Global Neighborhood, was published in January 1995. He chairs the board of the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance in Stockholm and the international steering committee of LEAD, the Leadership for Environment and Development program. Sir Shridath is a member of the council of the International Negotiating Network set up by former U.S. president Jimmy Carter and of the board of Canada's International Development Research Centre. He is also chancellor of the University of the West Indies and of the University of Warwick in England. In 1991 he was a special advisor to the secretary-general of the UN Conference on Environment and Development--the Earth Summit--for which he wrote the book Our Country the Planet: Forging a Partnership for Survival.

Roald Z. Sagdeev is Distinguished Professor in the department of physics at the University of Maryland and director of the East-West Space Science Center. Professor Sagdeev, whose area of special interest is nonlinear physics and plasmas, is one of the world's leading physicists. He was director of the Space Research Institute of the USSR Academy of Sciences for fifteen years and was former president Gorbachev's science advisor. In 1987-1988, he was chairman of the Committee of Soviet Scientists for Global Security. Professor Sagdeev was a People's Deputy of the USSR Congress, roughly the equivalent of a delegate to the U.S. Constitutional Convention. He has long been a strong and effective advocate of building bridges of understanding between the superpowers.

John D. Steinbruner has been director of the Foreign Policy Studies program at the Brookings Institution since 1978. His research has been focused on problems of international security. Before joining Brookings, he held academic positions at Yale University, the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Among the most recent of his many books and monographs is A New Concept of Cooperative Security (1992); he is also a major contributor to Global Engagement: Cooperation and Security in the 21st Century (1994), which was edited by Jan Nolan. His articles have appeared in such journals as Arms Control Today, Foreign Affairs, Politique Internationale, and Soviet Economy.

Brian Urquhart has been scholar-in-residence in the Ford Foundation's International Affairs Program since 1986, when he retired from the United Nations. From 1939 to 1945 Sir Brian served in the British Army in infantry and airborne units in North Africa and Europe. His UN career began with the birth of the institution itself--from 1945 to 1946 he was personal assistant to Gladwyne Jebb, the executive secretary of the Preparatory Commission of the United Nations in London. He held many posts in his forty years with the UN: he was personal assistant to Trygve Lie, the first secretary-general, for three and a half years, and from 1954 to 1971, during the tenure of Ralph J. Bunche, he served in various capacities in the Office of the Under Secretary-General for Special Political Affairs, which dealt with peacekeeping and conflict control. In 1974, Sir Brian was appointed Under Secretary-General for Special Political Affairs, a post he held until his retirement. As under secretary-general, among his responsibilities was the direction of peacekeeping operations and negotiations in Cyprus, the Middle East, Namibia , and other conflict areas. The most recent of his many books are Ralph Bunche: An American Life (1993) and (with Erskine Childers) Renewing the United Nations System (1994).

John C. Whitehead is chairman of AEA Investors Inc., a special situation investment company. During the Reagan administration, Mr. Whitehead was U.S. deputy secretary of state, under George Shultz, from 1985 to 1989. Among his areas of special interest were relations with Eastern Europe and the United Nations. After service in the navy, he began his professional career in 1947 at Goldman, Sachs & Co., where he remained for thirty-eight years, becoming senior partner and co-chairman in 1976; he retired from Goldman Sachs in late 1984. He is chairman of the board of many institutions, including the International Rescue Committee and the United Nations Association of the U.S.A., and is chairman emeritus of the Brookings Institution.

Sahabzada Yaqub-Khan has been the Special Representative of the United Nations Secretary-General for the Western Sahara since 1992. He retired from the Pakistan Army with the rank of Lieutenant General in 1971 after a long and distinguished career that began even before the establishment of Pakistan as an independent state. General Yaqub-Khan served as Vice Chief of the General Staff, Commander Armoured Division, Commandant of the Command and Staff College, Chief of the General Staff, and Governor of East Pakistan. After his retirement, he embarked on a career in international relations, first as ambassador to France (1972-1973 and 1980-1982), the United States (1973-1979), and the Soviet Union (1979-1980) and then as foreign minister between 1982 and 1991, a post that he held under six different governments.

Herbert S. Okun, special advisor to the Commission, is executive director of the Financial Services Volunteer Corps, a not-for-profit organization that provides voluntary assistance to help the former Communist countries of Eastern Europe, the former Soviet Union, and Asia establish free-market financial systems. He is also the U.S. member of the International Narcotics Control Board. Ambassador Okun's career with the U.S. Department of State began in 1955. By the time he retired from the Foreign Service in 1991, he had been an ambassador to the United Nations and the German Democratic Republic, vice chairman of the U.S. SALT II delegation and of the delegation to talks with the Soviet Union and the United Kingdom on a Comprehensive Test Ban, and political advisor to the NATO commander-in-chief for Southern Europe. He had also served as special assistant to Secretary of State William Rogers and as director of the Office of Soviet Union Affairs.

MEMBERS OF THE CARNEGIE COMMISSION ON PREVENTING DEADLY CONFLICT

David A. Hamburg, Co-chair
President
Carnegie Corporation of New York

Cyrus R. Vance, Co-chair
Partner
Simpson Thacher & Bartlett

Gro Harlem Brundtland
Prime Minister of Norway

Virendra Dayal
Member
Human Rights Commission of India

Gareth Evans
Minister for Foreign Affairs
Government of Australia

Alexander L. George
Graham H. Stuart
Professor Emeritus of International Relations
Stanford University

Flora MacDonald
Chair
International Development Research Center

Donald F. McHenry
University Research Professor of Diplomacy and International Affairs
Georgetown University

Olara A. Otunnu
President
International Peace Academy

David Owen
Co-chair of the International Conference on the Former Yugoslavia

Shridath Ramphal
Chancellor
University of the West Indies and University of Warwick

Roald Z. Sagdeev
Distinguished Professor
Department of Physics
University of Maryland

John D. Steinbruner
Director
Foreign Policy Studies Program
The Brookings Institution

Brian Urquhart
Scholar-in-Residence
International Affairs Program
The Ford Foundation

John C. Whitehead
Chairman
AEA Investors Inc.

Sahabzada Yaqub-Khan
Special Representative of the United Nations Secretary-General for the Western Sahara

Special Advisor to the Commission
Herbert S. Okun
Executive Director
Financial Services Volunteer Corps

Jane. E. Holl, Executive Director

MEMBERS OF THE ADVISORY COUNCIL

Morton Abramowitz
President
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Ali Abdullah Alatas
Minister for Foreign Affairs
Republic of Indonesia

Graham T. Allison
Douglas Dillon Professor of Government
John F. Kennedy School of Government
Harvard University

Robert Badinter
President Emeritus
Constitutional Council of France

Harold Brown
Counselor
Center for Strategic and International Studies

McGeorge Bundy
Scholar-in-Residence
Carnegie Corporation of New York

Jimmy Carter
The Carter Center of Emory University

Lori Damrosch
Professor of Law
Columbia University School of Law

Francis M. Deng
Senior Fellow
Foreign Policy Studies Program
The Brookings Institution

Sidney D. Drell
Professor and Deputy Director
Stanford Linear Accelerator Center
Stanford University

Lawrence S. Eagleburger
Senior Foreign Policy Advisor
Baker, Worthington, Crossley & Stansberry

Leslie H. Gelb
President
Council on Foreign Relations

David Gompert
Vice President
National Security Research
RAND Corporation

Andrew J. Goodpaster
Cochair
The Atlantic Council of the United States

Mikhail S. Gorbachev
The Gorbachev Foundation

James P. Grant*
Executive Director
United Nations Children's Fund

Lee H. Hamilton
United States House of Representatives

Theodore M. Hesburgh
President Emeritus
University of Notre Dame

Donald L. Horowitz
James B. Duke Professor of Law and Political Science
Duke University School of Law

Michael Howard
President
International Institute for Strategic Studies

Karl Kaiser
Director
Research Institute of the German Society for Foreign Affairs

Nancy Landon Kassebaum
United States Senate

Sol M. Linowitz
Honorary Chairman
The Academy for Educational Development

Richard G. Lugar
United States Senate

Michael Mandelbaum
Christian A. Herter Professor of American Foreign Policy
The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies
The Johns Hopkins University

Robert S. McNamara
Former U.S. Secretary of Defense

William H. McNeill
Professor Emeritus of History
University of Chicago

Sam Nunn
United States Senate

Olusegun Obasanjo
President
Africa Leadership Forum

Sadako Ogata
The High Commissioner for Refugees
United Nations

Javier PÍrez de Cuellar
Former Secretary-General
United Nations

Condoleezza Rice
Provost
Stanford University

Elliot L. Richardson
Milbank, Tweed, Hadley & McCloy

Harold H. Saunders
Director of International Affairs
Kettering Foundation

George P. Shultz
Distinguished Fellow
Hoover Institution on War, Revolution, and Peace
Stanford University

Richard Solomon
President
United States Institute of Peace

James Gustave Speth
Administrator
United Nations Development Programme

Desmond Tutu
The Archbishop of Cape Town

James D. Watkins
President
Joint Oceanographic Institutions, Inc.

Elie Wiesel
University Professor and Andrew W. Mellon Professor in the Humanities
Boston University

I. William Zartman
Jacob Blaustein Professor of International Organizations and Conflict Resolution
Director of the African Studies Program
The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies
The Johns Hopkins University

* Deceased February 1995.