“More than population growth and absolute size, the generational transition now under way will decide the course of Hispanic integration during the 21st century.” — Multiple Origins, Uncertain Destinies: Hispanics and the American Future.

	Marta Tienda, Chair, Panel on Hispanics in the United States

How are Hispanics transforming the United States as they enter the second and third generation and disperse throughout the country? And how will this transformation affect the allocation of resources benefiting not only the Hispanic population, but the nation as a whole? Carnegie Corporation hosted meeting to launch Multiple Origins,Uncertain Destinies: Hispanics and the American Future, a report and companion volume of analyses from the Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education of the National Academies.

Both publications look at the pivotal role played by the growing Latino population in the labor market, schools, health care system and U.S. politics. Based on a two-year study by a panel of experts in demographics, economics, sociology, political science and Chicano/Latino studies, the report and detailed companion volume aim to inform the future policy debate and provide government, public institutions and the private sector with answers to these and other critical questions.

“The first decade of the 21st century is a defining moment—an Hispanic moment, “ said Marta Tienda, chair of the panel and the Maurice P. During Professor in demographic studies and professor of sociology and public affairs at Princeton University. “Hispanics are a potential demographic dividend for the labor force, expected to represent nearly one in four U.S. residents by the year 2030. With a swelling second generation headed for new destinations, it will take major educational investments to accomplish the economic and social integration necessary to harness the power of the Hispanic population for the benefit of the nation.”

Geraldine P. Mannion, Chair, Strengthening U.S. Democracy Program, Carnegie Corporation of New York; Faith Mitchell, Study Director, Institute of Medicine, the National Academies; Cordelia W. Reimers, Professor of Economics, Hunter College and the Graduate School, City University of New York.

The study shows that despite gradually ascending trends in wages, household income, wealth and home ownership across time and generations, as a group Hispanics are losing economic ground relative to whites because of the weak economic position of large numbers of low-skilled immigrants hampered by limited education and lack of English skills. It concludes that of all the risks this population faces, the most profound is failure to graduate from high school—especially as increasing numbers of the most rapidly growing occupational categories require at least some college education.

Maria Echaveste, Nueva Vista Group

Maria Echaveste, co-founder of the Nueva Vistra Group and assistant to the president and deputy chief of staff during the Clinton administration, believes a key to the solution is for greater numbers of Hispanics to become citizens. “Citizenship is in their interest for a stake in society,” she says. Given the impressive numbers taking part in recent mass mobilization, she’s hopeful that “the stage has been set for comprehensive reform.”

Looking ahead, the way these changes, opportunities and risks play out over the decades will define the future for Hispanics, along with the political, economic and social contours of the United States in the 21st century.

Marta Tienda and Louis Desipio, Professor of Political Science and Chicano/Latino studies, University of California, Irvine Photos by Everod Nelson

		Multiple Origins, Uncertain Destinies To access this complete report online or to order a copy of the book, go to: http://darwin.nap.edu/books/0309096677/html
		Hispanics and the American Future For the companion volume of analyses, go to: http://darwin.nap.edu/books/0309100518/html

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